Analytics

sábado, 6 de junio de 2015

Cuando las Mayorías Pierden.

To read this essay in English click here.

La fecha no está anunciada aún, pero aparte de la muy verdadera posibilidad de fraude, hay razones estructurales por las cuales hay gran probabilidad de que el chavismo mantenga el control de la Asamblea Nacional en las elecciones venideras. Datanálisis arroja que alrededor del ochenta por ciento del universo votante en Venezuela se opone al gobierno de Nicolás Maduro. Esto haría pensar que las elecciones parlamentarias serán arrasadas por la oposición. Sin embargo, estar contra Maduro no es necesariamente ser antichavista.   Los opositores al chavismo, sumados a los opositores de Maduro suman gran mayoría pero no necesariamente eso hará que la Asamblea Nacional electa este año sea antichavista.

El Universo electoral se puede dividir en cuatro grandes grupos: Chavistas pro-maduro, Chavistas anti-maduro, Antichavistas pro-MUD, y Antichavistas anti-MUD. Los grupos chavistas...




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ESTE ENSAYO Y OTROS ESTÁN DISPONIBLES EN SU TOTALIDAD EN
LA VENEZUELA IMPOSIBLE: 

miércoles, 6 de mayo de 2015

La Igualdad, la Libertad y la Felicidad

Click here to read this essay in English.

El Acta de Independencia de Venezuela, entre sus justificativos para romper con el gobierno español, incluye uno de los primeros reclamos registrados oficialmente por escrito contra la demagogia y las promesas incumplidas, derivado directamente de un lema de la revolución francesa la cual, irónicamente, había conducido al gobierno con el cual rompía ahora la Capitanía General de Venezuela:

“…nos prometían la libertad, la igualdad y la fraternidad, en discursos pomposos y frases estudiadas, para encubrir el lazo de una representación amañada, inútil y degradante.”

Es así como los conceptos de igualdad y libertad se encuentran en el origen de la nación venezolana—y en las numerosas y sangrientas pugnas fratricidas subsiguientes que ha sufrido desde el 5 de julio de 1811.

Si en lugar de evidentemente complementarios analizamos estos derechos universales como complejamente antagónicos, podemos entender algo mejor el porqué de dichas pugnas y su efecto sobre la felicidad del país.


El Marxismo como Base de la Justicia Social


El debate sobre justicia social tiene entre sus fundamentos principales la premisa de la igualdad del hombre con sus semejantes. Dicha premisa obliga moralmente a la empatía cuando existe desigualdad y busca remediar la condición y aliviar el sufrimiento de los más desafortunados. El corolario de esta línea de pensamiento es...


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ESTE ENSAYO Y OTROS ESTÁN DISPONIBLES EN SU TOTALIDAD EN
LA VENEZUELA IMPOSIBLE: 

domingo, 26 de abril de 2015

Breve y Simple Cuento de una Mata de Mango


Sentado en el sofá viejo del salón familiar de una casa vieja, con zaguán al frente, porche trasero y jardín frutal descuidado, el Papá de El Chamito lee un pesado libro de filosofía.
El Chamito entra corriendo, todo emocionado.
El Chamito: ¡Papá, mira papá, mi negocio de juguitos de mango está resultando! ¡Vendí mil bolívares hoy!
Papá del Chamito: Que bien. Pero, sabes, esa mata de mango está en el jardín de la casa, y la casa es mía, así que me toca mi parte – la mayoría, porque sin mata, no tendrías jugo.
El Chamito: Pero…  tengo que pagarles a mis asistentes, y necesito una máquina de jugos nueva, y tengo que pagarle al afilador de cuchillos, y un poquito para mí, y ahorrar para la merienda.
Papá del Chamito: Y, ¿cuánto necesitas?
El Chamito: bueno, me cuesta entre una y otra cosa como 500.
El Papá del Chamito cierra con calma su libro, prende un tabaco y pondera la situación. Finalmente le dice a Chamito cómo va a ser la cosa.
Papá del Chamito: Okey, por el derecho a que recojas los mangos, te voy a cobrar 300. Y como estás haciendo tanto real, de los 200 que te quedan, te voy a quitar 190. Así te quedan 10. Con eso te debe resultar suficiente para la merienda. Eso es lo justo, porque la mata de mango es mía y sin mata, no tienes jugo.
El Chamito: …este… bueno… okey.
Papá del Chamito: Y ese es el cálculo con mil bolívares. Si vendes más, como ya cubriste tu costo, lo llamaremos “excedente”, y es todo para mí.
El Chamito: ¿Y si vendo menos?


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ESTE ENSAYO Y OTROS ESTÁN DISPONIBLES EN SU TOTALIDAD EN
LA VENEZUELA IMPOSIBLE: 

martes, 24 de marzo de 2015

El Robo Mayor (2)*

Un País para Querer

Read this essay in English

Siendo joven, una de mis actividades favoritas era recorrer Venezuela. Cuando niño, con mis padres y mis tíos, rodé por esas carreteras, yendo a playas  tanto cercanas como lejanas – Macuto, Naiguatá, Cata, La Restinga… Por el alto llano de Barinas y las montañas de los Andes… y Guayana, sobre el Puente Angostura y hasta el Guri.

Ya algo mayor hacía excursiones frecuentes al Ávila, trasnochando en la Silla de Caracas con amigos de escuela y luego, como joven profesional soltero con compañeros de parranda, reinicié esos recorridos por el país, por Venezuela. Durmiendo en pensiones de mala muerte en San Fernando de Apure o amaneciendo en el carro con dolor de cabeza por el aire enrarecido del Páramo de Mucuchíes; parado sobre piedras del precipicio al final de la península de Araya o acampando en las arenas de Paraguaná con mi hermano, viendo a lo lejos el resplandor nocturno de Amuay. Pisé guano en El Guácharo. Visité reinas de belleza en Barquisimeto. Tomé menjurjes, cervezas y ron en Sorte, Guasdualito y San Francisco de Yare. Comí nieve en el Pico Espejo y caminé tempranas nieblas merideñas junto a mi joven y bella esposa venezolana. Experiencias inolvidables.

Las gentes de Venezuela éramos una sola gente. Andinos o margariteños, maracuchos o guayaneses, caraqueños o llaneros, todos queríamos lo mismo: una mejor Venezuela, un mejor futuro. El anhelo común de todo ser humano. 



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ESTE ENSAYO Y OTROS ESTÁN DISPONIBLES EN SU TOTALIDAD EN
LA VENEZUELA IMPOSIBLE: 

miércoles, 11 de marzo de 2015

La Locura del Liderazgo

To read this essay in English, click here.

El del Sur.

Los Estados Unidos fueron atacados el lunes 24 de noviembre del 2014. El mayor ataque cibernético que se haya perpetrado hasta la fecha puso de rodillas a una gran corporación y afectó a miles de personas. El ataque a Sony se ha determinado con 99% de certeza que se originó en Corea del Norte, su líder motivado por la percepción de haber sido atacado primero  por unos jóvenes cineastas comediantes de Hollywood con insultos a su arrogancia y pomposidad. Hasta esas alturas, las trágicas y caricaturescas payasadas de Kim Jung-Un, el "Líder Supremo", habían sido ignoradas en su mayoría por el pueblo estadounidense. Aun cuando el impacto directo para Sony parece moderado en contexto (se estima en alrededor de 15 millones de dólares), el impacto a compañías y agencias obligadas a incrementar su seguridad cibernética, el impacto personal a personas asociadas pero no parte directa de Sony, y el trauma psíquico sobre toda la ciudadanía norte-americana, no es cuantificable. Todo porque un desatado solitario se enojó con los EE. UU.
La locura del liderazgo no es exclusiva a tierras del Lejano Oriente. Enfrentando pobreza masiva, hambre, y un deterioro en calidad de vida que va desde la salud hasta la seguridad personal, el gobierno de Nicolás Maduro en Venezuela ha reiterado el lema populista favorito: la culpa es de ‘LOS OTROS’. Sean internos (burguesitos), externos (el Imperio) y/o en combinación conspirativa. Sin embargo, la falta de soluciones verdaderas para los problemas cada día más numerosos que sufre el país está resultando en un aumento desenfrenado de la autocracia represiva en intentos fallidos de control, y puede conducir a acciones virulentas e irracionales en contra de los Estados Unidos.

El Sr. Maduro es un personaje pintoresco. Persiguiendo la sombra de su carismático y más pintoresco mentor, el fallecido Hugo Chávez, Maduro no da la talla ante el ídolo muerto. Y no porque no lo haya intentado. En estilo de dinastía electoral se autocalifica “Hijo de Chávez”; declara que el espíritu de Chávez le habla en forma de pajarito; toca cuatro durante mítines; y en conferencias de prensa y cadenas televisivas imita el estilo paternalista y condescendiente de los discursos de El Difunto.
Sin embargo, la visión nostálgica de los chavistas siempre verá a Maduro como inadecuado en comparación: no se puede competir con El Muerto. El chavismo...


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ESTE ENSAYO Y OTROS ESTÁN DISPONIBLES EN SU TOTALIDAD EN
LA VENEZUELA IMPOSIBLE: 

viernes, 6 de marzo de 2015

The Madness of Leadership.


The One South of Us.

On Monday November 24th 2014, the US was attacked.  The largest ever cyberattack to date brought a major corporation to its knees and affected the lives of thousands of people.  The Sony hack has been determined with 99% certainty to have come from North Korea, motivated by a perceived attack on its arrogance and self-importance by some comedy filmmakers in Hollywood.  Up to then, the tragic cartoonish buffoonery of the Supreme Leader, Kim Jung-Un, had been dismissed in America as innocuous for the most part.  While the direct financial impact on Sony is reported at $15M, the overall impact on all corporations and agencies now boosting cyber-security, the personal impact on people associated but not part of Sony, and the gut impact on the American psyche is unquantifiable. All because one rogue person got mad at the US.

The madness of leadership is not singular to faraway lands.  Faced with mass poverty, starvation and deteriorating standards of living from health to personal safety, the government of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela has doubled down on the populist solution of choice, blame the OTHERS: internal (petty bourgeois), external (the Empire) or/and a combination of both conspiring.  The lack of real solutions to the country's increasing problems, however has led to increased autocratic measures and can lead to even more irrational vitriol and actions targeting the US.
Mr. Maduro is a colorful character. Chasing the shadow of his more charismatic and even more colorful mentor, the late Hugo Chávez, he cannot live up to the idolized vision of a dead leader. He has tried: in dynastic, electoral mode, he called himself "The Son of Chávez"; he claims that the spirit of Chávez talks to him in the form of a little bird; he plays the Cuatro (a variation of the ukulele) during rallies; he mimics the affected paternalistic and condescending speech patterns of the late Chávez in press conferences and intervened TV programming (cadenas).
 
The nostalgic view of the Chavistas will always render Maduro as inadequate. Chavismo fooled a great majority of people some of the time and still some has some fooled all of the time (for more on this read my previous essay-- With a Heavy Heart: Facing the Failures of Chavismo). But the intractable problems of the economy and society that face Maduro now are direct consequence of Chavismo.  The festive party with no realistic vision of tomorrow that Chávez led, buoyed by high priced oil used to buy and curry favors from fair weather friends, is over. Now it is time to pay the piper.

Caudillismo on Steroids.

The leader cult runs deep in Venezuela. From the time of Simon Bolivar, and with roots in Spanish King authority, strong leaders have been venerated in a quasi religious manner, adding them to the Santeria pantheon that underlies popular beliefs.  Santeria is a mixture of Afro-Caribbean, American (Venezuelan) Indian and Christian rituals with an Earth Goddess named Maria Leonza at its center. It is said that most if not all Venezuelan presidents have had links of one sort or another to this undercurrent culture.  Not by coincidence, a similar cult exists in Cuba where Maria Leonza is substituted by their own Sea-Earth Goddess, Yemayá.
This idolatry of the leader, of course, is not a Venezuela exclusive and North Korea once again comes to mind, particularly in its close association with religious practice.  While nominally a secular atheist state, devotion to the Supreme Leader has replaced traditional organized religion.  This devotion has a name, Juche, centered on the cult of the Kim dynasty. According to Juche teachings, life after death exists only if the society that defined that life is continued. The Juche calendar begins with patriarch Kim Il-Sung's birth in 1912.
The cozy relationship begun with Chávez between North Korea and Venezuela deepened under Maduro, with the announcement in October 2013 of a reopening of the North Korean Embassy in Caracas and a cooperation agreement between the legislative chambers. In typical flamboyant rhetoric of insecure autocratic regimes, the newly appointed NK ambassador to Venezuela, Jon Yong-Jin, is reported to have said that "if the US government dared to engage in a military attack on Venezuela, North Korea would not think twice before joining the fight against the empire". (Aporrea)
Not much has been heard from Ambassador Jon since his recall to North Korea after his brother in law Jang Sung-Taek, who was also Kim Jong-Un's uncle, was executed by the Supreme Leader by feeding him to angry dogs in December 2013. Kim was purging his government of enemies out to get him.
Paranoia, imagined plots and savage repression come with the unbridled actions of the "supreme" be it Leader or Commander (as in the case of Chávez). Since his ascension to power in 2013, Maduro has claimed to have uncovered dozens of coup and anti government conspiracies. Usually when public opinion of the government needs a boost. Conspirators in his little red book have included journalists, store owners, former ambassadors, and student leaders. All, of course, aided and abetted by the US and their cadre of gringo-loving local business men. In his latest uncovered counterrevolutionary plot, he arrested four missionaries from North Dakota plotting to undermine the health system of the country. A few months ago it was the turn of the head of a major hospital alerting to possible pandemics due to the shortages of health supplies of all sorts.
Feverish hatred and paranoia can lead to bad decisions and consequences for all parties.  The repressive nature of the Venezuelan regime is reaching new heights. From the mundane, such as HR memos in state owned enterprises urging fellow workers to denounce anyone they know traveling to the US, to the unabashed, such as arrests of high profile opposition leaders detained on trumped up charges and held indefinitely awaiting arraignment and trial. Other less prominent opponents from the working and student populations are routinely arrested and recorded as enemies of the state, to be harassed and black balled in employment and school under the watchful eye of Chavismo.  Read more here about Democracy under Chavismo.
Public protests are now, by government decree, (un)lawfully squashed with live ammo. In a recent incident a fourteen year old boy, Kluiverth Roa, huddled and scared behind a car after running away from the repressed protest march, was shot point blank in the head by a police officer in charge of stopping the protests. And those are the incidents that make the news. While that particular victim's family may get a modicum of redress, the population at large gets the message: repression is here to stay.
Kluiverth Roa, Murdered by a Shot to the Head

Survival Mode.

The shattered economy is evident in the streets, where shop owners big and small are constantly harassed while protected peddlers thrive in a corrupt black market of goods sold way over their regulated prices. Byzantine foreign exchange regulations and the collapse in oil revenues has led to scarcity of essential goods and foods in a country where local production has been all but squashed by Chavista zealotry. Hard to find products include sanitary napkins, toilet paper and, of course, medicines and medical supplies of all sorts.  The collapse of health care has forced many to increasingly rely on home medicines and witchcraft solutions.  The slogan "Socialist Fatherland or Death" used by Chavez rings so true now.

Army Captain Diosdado Cabello
The "Cartel de los Soles" (Cartel of the Suns, named for the insignias of Generals) --the military led narcotrafficking ring-- keeps a firm grip on the government and represses any possible military dissension. From its beginning, in association the Colombian narco-guerrilla FARC, top elements in the military establishment first protected and then appropriated the drug business in the region. Former Vice-President and now National Assembly Speaker, Capt. (act.) Diosdado Cabello was Chavez's liaison with the FARC and is now a leading figure in this cartel (For a reported chronology of the growth of Venezuela as a Military Drug State, follow the links at the end of this essay).

The social contract is a shambles by Chavez's own creations: the Social Missions and "Colectivos". These are groups of die hard Chavistas set up in neighborhoods to enforce Chavista rule. These groups in many cases have become gangs that terrorize their charges and fight each other. In a high profile case a leading and rising young Chavista star, Assembly Member Roberto Serra, was recently stabbed to death by members of his own bodyguards composed of Mission thugs in a rivalry dispute of some kind.


The colectivos have become a de-facto militia, armed, trained and supported institutionally, and called upon when needed to repress anti-government protests. But this dragon nurtured by the regime needs to be fed and Maduro has a hard time complying. The recent death of an outspoken colectivo leader, Jose Odreman, under a hail of police bullets, came shortly after he was denouncing Maduro's wavering to Chavista principles.

The ingredients for desperation moves are all there. Political intrigue, massive corruption and a repressed population make for a simmering cauldron that President Maduro is well aware of. He needs to cater to his core base of dyed-in-the-wool Chavistas that maintain the Panglossian virtues of socialist Chavista principles. This faction pulls him away from any possible compromise that could affect the unsustainable favor-purchasing economic policies that are at the core of Chavismo --and populism in general.

Given such conditions, distractions are in order.  Repeated ad-nauseam uncovered coup plots form the continuing saga of Maduro's tenure. He uses these supposed revelations to justify repressive moves towards the population and opposition leaders, and dramatically accuses "The Empire" of attempting to strike him down. His latest move, forcing the US Embassy to all but shut down with a skeleton crew of 17 accredited officers, issuing (laughable) travel bans to a who's who list in American politics and increasing travel restrictions for US citizens into Venezuela, follows a pattern of growing aggression towards the US which, despite it all, is Venezuela's still biggest trading partner and source of hard currency. 

After returning home empty handed from a beggar's tour of Venezuela's allies, China, Russia, Iran and the Arab world, Maduro in contradictory statements said "God will provide" while claiming success. He even announced an odd plan to help Qatar import foodstuffs from Venezuela --disregarding the fact that there is no home grown food in Venezuela. In his visit to Iran he reiterated the strong ties between both countries, ties that may weaken if the US succeeds in reestablishing diplomatic relations with that country. 

 The Cuba-US "apertura" further isolates Venezuela and Maduro, the face of Chavismo, faces a lonely future indeed. Maduro may not prevail but Chavismo, true to its Marxist-Leninist roots, will continue to crush opposition and not give an inch, regardless of its figurehead. Venezuela's closest remaining ally will be North Korea, sympathetic to Chavismo's struggle against the Empire, and a model to follow in socialist rule. Having a powerful common enemy, a shattered populace and similar messianic tendencies make these regimes find common ground to support each other; and possibly act in concert in accordance to the madness of their leadership.

 

Cartel de Los Soles: Venezuela's Government Protected Drug Cartel.

2015 - DEA and US Attorneys build their cases against high ranking government officials - The Wall Street Journal

2015 – National Assembly President and former Vice President, Capt. (Army, Act.) Diosdado Cabello: http://interamericansecuritywatch.com/diosdado-cabellos-head-of-security-defects-to-the-u-s-and-accuses-him-of-narcotrafficking/





2005  - Getting rid of the competition: http://venezuelanalysis.com/news/1279

All images copyright their respective owners.

 

jueves, 24 de julio de 2014

21st Century Barbarians

Not enough is known about the downing of Flight 17 over rebel-held Ukraine. The largest unknown so far is the primordial one: why? Who gains from such a barbaric act? What mind could think that shooting a missile into a civilian airliner would gather any type of sympathy for any type of cause? To consider civilian targets justifiable clearly brands the culprits as terrorists, no question. There is no honest mistake owned up to or collateral damage claimed in this action as far as news reports have uncovered. It appears to have been intentional and, if the shoot down itself was not, the cover up, misdirection and disavowing are indicators of a moral turpitude of the highest magnitude.  

Photographic evidence and intercepted communications by surveillance services indict as culprits the separatist rebels of eastern Ukraine. Separatists incited, trained and armed by Russia under the leadership of Vladimir Putin, who seeks to assert that historically ethnic Russians living in foreign lands are entitled to territorial claims and subservience to their ancestral home country. This doctrine is destabilizing and dangerous and to leave it unchallenged will lead to greater conflict, not only in Russia’s sphere of influence, but in China’s and others, as well as the Middle East region.

The United States cannot turn a blind eye to this barbaric act and its recognizable origin in Russia’s ethnic based expansionist doctrine. But it cannot escalate out of proportion to the act itself. There are actions that can be taken to provide the adequate response.
  1. The shooting of the airliner with a missile is in and of itself a clear terrorist act, prosecutable and punishable by international law. Anyone aiding these terrorists is complicit and should be treated as such—and hunted down. 
  2. A massive diplomatic black balling should be coordinated: The Russian government representatives in each of the countries with victims should be admonished and given clear instructions from these countries. The ambassadors to Russia from each of these countries should be recalled for consultation.
  3. Despite the Security Council veto power from Russia, resolutions should be put forward condemning in the strongest language the rebels’ actions and calling for their disarmament.
  4. NATO should mobilize and, with assistance from the US and cooperation from the Ukraine government, deploy armed drones to destroy all rebel SAM bases and equipment in eastern Ukraine. By attacking an international vessel, the rebels have called for such an international response.
  5. Navy ships should be deployed within cruise and perhaps even interceptor missile range of rebel bases and troops in eastern Ukraine.
While these are escalating actions and susceptible to fog of war, they are acceptable and proportional responses that still leave room for diplomatic solutions. I just hope that someone out there has a better idea. What is not a good idea is to not react to 21st Century barbarians.

Carlos J. Rangel

VENEZUELA HOY Y SU NUEVO MAÑANA

 El 21 de noviembre de 2024, El Club de la Libertad, en Corrientes, Argentina, invit ó  a Carlos J. Rangel a hablar acerca de Venezuela, su ...